Kristian is one of our Business analysts and an economics student at the university of Copenhagen. During his time at Monitor Deloitte he has developed a curiousity for scenario planning as a strategic tool. We talked to Kristian about how the framework challenge him with new perspectives.
- So, what has sparked your interest in Scenario Planning “As an economics student, I have always worked with modelling relations. These models are often anchored in a framed setting, where uncertainty and risk is mitigated by probability– and a sensitivity analysis consists of tweaking certain factors and variables. Although this approach to forecasting can produce “accurate” results, they rarely contribute with unanticipated perceptions. Scenarios challenge this conventional wisdom and “business as usual” mentality by forcing one to consider a broader range of possible futures. The potential to uncover new and insightful futures and improve present strategic decision-making based on rigorous footwork from data-analyses and industry experts makes Scenario Planning a very powerful and exciting tool to work with.”
- Why do you think scenario planning is especially buzzing right now?“The world is an uncertain place and the speed at which it changes is rapidly increasing. Factors such as speed of innovation, political tumult, increasing connectivity and demographic shifts, all contribute to making long-term strategic planning even more difficult, but also more rewarding when conducted successfully. Business leaders need a tool that allows them to think openly about the future and react quickly to a changing world – making Scenario Planning relevant today. Scenario planning is a collaborative tool that requires a deep intellectual curiosity and a desire to constantly learn more about what drives the future. Getting this methodology embedded in an organization increases resilience to sudden changes and strengthens its ability to recognize impending disruptions and potential growth opportunities. Of course, these scenarios may ultimately prove inaccurate, but simply by motivating dialogue today on developments that might be critical tomorrow they become valuable.”